EnergyTrend: Prices Began to Drop as Uncertainty Mounts

March 7, 2012—Aide Solar and Q-Cells reported negative news following the subsidy cut in Germany, which put a damper on the global solar market outlook and caused the spot prices to drop. According to EnergyTrend’s survey, normal grade and high efficiency products were affected by the price downturn, and other products’ prices stayed flat.

Source: EnergyTrend

According to EnergyTrend, last week, polysilicon related manufacturers became more aggressive about prices quotes, and there was greater room for price negotiation. According to the information EnergyTrend gathered, second-tier polysilicon makers’ price quote has come down to $25/kg, while the top four makers’ price quotes remained high. Related manufacturers stated that due to the production cut of Chinese polysilicon makers and the large amount of orders pouring in early 1Q12, the recent shipments were mostly to fulfill the ongoing 1Q12 contract, and the demand in the spot market remained low. Manufacturers also indicated that if the pale outlook persists, they will likely further the price cut.

As for wafer, clients took a sterner stance on price quotes as conservatism started to spread in the market. But the price gap between different products started to widen. In terms of high efficiency products, the prices remained above $1.3/piece while the normal grade product’s lowest prices dropped to $1.11/piece.

As for the midstream manufacturers, Taiwanese solar cell and module makers’ utilization rates stayed the same, but the companies still kept close track of the statuses of downstream clients. EnergyTrend points out that benefiting from the PV trade dispute between China and the United States, Taiwanese cell and module makers continue to receive orders. However, the bleak outlook in Europe and the impending verdict of the PV trade dispute renders the 2Q12 development conservative.

As for this week’s spot prices, according to EnergyTrend, the bulk of shipments was from previous orders and the spot demand remained low, which saw the prices stay flat. However, clients have put the remaining shipment on hold and planned to renegotiate the prices. Polysilicon spot price began dipping, with ASP dropping to US$28.38/kg, a 4.38% decrease, which was attributed to the second-tier companies and traders’ aggressive stance on price quotes. Wafer ASP fell modestly, with multi-Si wafer ASP dropping by 0.57% to US1.222/piece, and mono-Si wafer ASP at US$1.617, down by 0.37%. Helped by certain manufacturers’ aggressiveness in price quotes and acquiring orders, this week’s solar cell and module ASP remained the same, while the price gap widened. EnergyTrend believes that as certain manufacturers’ proactive stance proved effective, other manufacturers will join the ranks, which will trigger fluctuations in the solar cell and module prices.